Tom McClintock
CA-5What the Signal reads
McClintock is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has McClintock at 92.7¢ against Masuda's 8.1¢, up 2.2¢ since August 3. McClintock leads 2.5 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Tom McClintock by name.
20,005 traded · 8,156 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
McClintock v Masuda
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 5th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Tom McClintock.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+17.7 → R+20.7
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +17.7 to Trump +20.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.