Elections Intelligence

Alan Wilson

SCGovernor: G under a starred pediment
CHALLENGER Likely R to Safe R Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Wilson is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Wilson at 94.1¢ against Johnson's 6¢, up 3.8¢ since July 31. The polling average has Wilson ahead by 10 points, and Wilson leads 6.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Wilson · Republican contract
94.1¢
▲ 3.8¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Alan Wilson by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 96¢ · low 89¢Oct 12
Alan WilsonRepublican
94.1¢
Jermaine JohnsonDemocratic
6.0¢

33,515 traded · 25,613 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Wilson v Johnson

Metric by metric
Wilson
Johnson
94.1¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
6.0¢
$4.86M
RaisedState filings, through June 30
$751.4K
$860.7K
Cash on handState filings, through June 30
$172.3K
45%
Latest pollResonance Media, R-leaning firm · Oct 3
35%
Attorney General of South Carolina
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

South Carolina Governor
Polling average
R+10

Average of 2 pollsters, August 15 to October 3.

Prior result
R+17.4

2022 general election, won by Henry McMaster.

Fundraising
6.4 to 1

Raised, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.