Elections Intelligence

Bruce Blakeman

NYGovernor: G under a starred pediment
CHALLENGER Lean D to Safe D Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Blakeman is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Blakeman at 5.4¢ against Hochul's 95.3¢, down 2.5¢ since July 31. The polling average has Hochul ahead by 11.5 points, and Blakeman leads 1.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Blakeman · Republican contract
5.4¢
▼ 2.5¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Bruce Blakeman by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 9.6¢ · low 4.6¢Oct 12
Bruce BlakemanRepublican
5.4¢
Kathy HochulDemocratic · incumbent
95.3¢

2,260,879 traded · 1,810,107 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Blakeman v Hochul

Metric by metric
Blakeman
Hochul
5.4¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
95.3¢
$10.86M
RaisedState filings, through July 11
$9.40M
$4.33M
Cash on handState filings, through July 11
$21.03M
39.7%
Latest pollEmerson College · Oct 5
52.4%
No office on file
Holds now
Governor of New Yorksince 2023

The 2026 race

New York Governor
Polling average
D+11.5

Average of 5 pollsters, September 17 to October 5.

Prior result
D+6.4

2022 general election, won by Kathy Hochul.

Fundraising
1.1 to 1

Raised, through July 11.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.