Jay Obernolte
CA-23What the Signal reads
Obernolte is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Obernolte at 97.7¢ against Hodge's 4.7¢, up 6.1¢ since August 3. Obernolte leads 18.3 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Jay Obernolte by name.
2,040 traded · 1,559 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Obernolte v Hodge
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 23rd District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Jay Obernolte.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+16.9 → R+19.4
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +16.9 to Trump +19.4 in the 2024 presidential vote).