Tom Emmer · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Emmer is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Emmer at 95¢ against Chapin's 5.1¢, up 8¢ since August 3. Emmer leads 22.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Emmer · Republican contract

95.0¢

▲ 8.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Tom Emmer by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 95¢ · low 87¢Oct 12

Tom EmmerRepublican · incumbent

95.0¢

Doug ChapinDemocratic

5.1¢

21,227 traded · 12,099 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Emmer v Chapin

Metric by metric

Emmer

Chapin

95.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

5.1¢

$9.79M

RaisedFEC, through July 22

$438.7K

$4.50M

Cash on handFEC, through July 22

$70.3K

U.S. Representativesince 2015

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Minnesota 6th District

Prior result

R+25.0

2024 general election, won by Tom Emmer.

Fundraising

22.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.