Jahana Hayes · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Hayes is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Hayes at 96.4¢ against Shea's 4.9¢, up 18.4¢ since August 3. Hayes leads 4.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Hayes · Democratic contract

96.4¢

▲ 18.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jahana Hayes by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99¢ · low 78¢Oct 12

Jahana HayesDemocratic · incumbent

96.4¢

Chris SheaRepublican

4.9¢

7,846 traded · 4,189 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Hayes v Shea

Metric by metric

Hayes

Shea

96.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.9¢

$1.29M

RaisedFEC, through June 30 and July 22

$311.7K

$1.08M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30 and July 22

$145.6K

U.S. Representativesince 2019

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Connecticut 5th District

Prior result

D+6.8

2024 general election, won by Jahana Hayes.

Fundraising

4.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.