Michael Masuda · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Masuda is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Masuda at 8.1¢ against McClintock's 92.7¢, down 1¢ since August 3. McClintock leads 2.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Masuda · Democratic contract

8.1¢

▼ 1.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Michael Masuda by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 11¢ · low 7.2¢Oct 12

Michael MasudaDemocratic

8.1¢

Tom McClintockRepublican · incumbent

92.7¢

20,005 traded · 8,156 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Masuda v McClintock

Metric by metric

Masuda

McClintock

8.1¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

92.7¢

$361.7K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$928.8K

$89.5K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$201.5K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2009

The 2026 race

California 5th District

Prior result

R+23.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Tom McClintock.

Fundraising

2.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.