Elinor Gilbreath · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Gilbreath is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Gilbreath at 5¢ against Simpson's 97.8¢, down 1.1¢ since August 3. Simpson leads 10.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Gilbreath · Democratic contract

5.0¢

▼ 1.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Elinor Gilbreath by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 4¢Oct 12

Elinor GilbreathDemocratic

5.0¢

Michael K. SimpsonRepublican · incumbent

97.8¢

5,194 traded · 4,046 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Gilbreath v Simpson

Metric by metric

Gilbreath

Simpson

5.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.8¢

$106.9K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.12M

$71.2K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$429.4K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 1999

The 2026 race

Idaho 2nd District

Prior result

R+30.4

2024 general election, won by Michael K. Simpson.

Fundraising

10.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.