Elections Intelligence

Shaun Finnie

TX-2U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Likely R Underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Finnie is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Finnie at 7¢ against Toth's 92¢, down 4¢ since August 3. Finnie leads 3.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Finnie · Democratic contract
7.0¢
▼ 4.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Shaun Finnie by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 13¢ · low 6¢Oct 12
Shaun FinnieDemocratic
7.0¢
Steve TothRepublican
92.0¢

1,478 traded · 1,257 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Finnie v Toth

Metric by metric
Finnie
Toth
7.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
92.0¢
$2.73M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$824.5K
$1.47M
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$152.9K
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 2nd District
Prior result
R+31.3

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Dan Crenshaw.

Fundraising
3.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.