Laurel M. Lee · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Lee is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Lee at 92¢ against People's 9.8¢, up 5¢ since August 3. Lee leads 58.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Lee · Republican contract

92.0¢

▲ 5.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Laurel M. Lee by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 92¢ · low 87¢Oct 12

Laurel M. LeeRepublican · incumbent

92.0¢

Robert PeopleDemocratic

9.8¢

14,127 traded · 7,324 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Lee v People

Metric by metric

Lee

People

92.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

9.8¢

$2.35M

RaisedFEC, through July 29

$40.1K

$1.96M

Cash on handFEC, through July 29

$3.5K

U.S. Representativesince 2023

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Florida 15th District

Prior result

R+12.4

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Laurel M. Lee.

Fundraising

58.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+11.2 → R+19.9

Florida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +11.2 to Trump +19.9 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗