Mike Kelly · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Kelly is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Kelly at 95.4¢ against Wagner's 6¢, up 7.4¢ since August 3. Kelly leads 17.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Kelly · Republican contract

95.4¢

▲ 7.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Mike Kelly by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 96.2¢ · low 88¢Oct 12

Mike KellyRepublican · incumbent

95.4¢

Justin WagnerDemocratic

6.0¢

11,425 traded · 5,890 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Kelly v Wagner

Metric by metric

Kelly

Wagner

95.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

6.0¢

$1.17M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$66.6K

$1.33M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$37.5K

U.S. Representativesince 2011

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 16th District

Prior result

R+27.4

2024 general election, won by Mike Kelly.

Fundraising

17.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.