Justin Wagner · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Wagner is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Wagner at 6¢ against Kelly's 95.4¢, down 3.3¢ since August 3. Kelly leads 17.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Wagner · Democratic contract

6.0¢

▼ 3.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Justin Wagner by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 12¢ · low 4.6¢Oct 12

Justin WagnerDemocratic

6.0¢

Mike KellyRepublican · incumbent

95.4¢

11,425 traded · 5,890 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Wagner v Kelly

Metric by metric

Wagner

Kelly

6.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

95.4¢

$66.6K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.17M

$37.5K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.33M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2011

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 16th District

Prior result

R+27.4

2024 general election, won by Mike Kelly.

Fundraising

17.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.