Elections Intelligence

Cyril Jefferson

NC-6U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Likely R Underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Jefferson is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Jefferson at 9.4¢ against McDowell's 91.9¢, down 1.6¢ since August 3. McDowell leads 6.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Jefferson · Democratic contract
9.4¢
▼ 1.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Cyril Jefferson by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 16¢ · low 8.5¢Oct 12
Cyril JeffersonDemocratic
9.4¢
Addison P. McDowellRepublican · incumbent
91.9¢

8,427 traded · 1,625 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Jefferson v McDowell

Metric by metric
Jefferson
McDowell
9.4¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
91.9¢
$199.9K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$1.23M
$13.9K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$381.7K
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

North Carolina 6th District
Prior result
McDowell +38.3

McDowell won 69.2% to 30.8% over Kevin E. Hayes (2024).

Fundraising
6.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.