Melissa McDonough · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

McDonough is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has McDonough at 5.3¢ against Bonck's 95.1¢, down 3.5¢ since August 3. Bonck leads 24.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

McDonough · Democratic contract

5.3¢

▼ 3.5¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Melissa McDonough by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 29¢ · low 2.8¢Oct 12

Melissa McDonoughDemocratic

5.3¢

Jon BonckRepublican

95.1¢

7,604 traded · 4,232 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

McDonough v Bonck

Metric by metric

McDonough

Bonck

5.3¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

95.1¢

$66.9K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.64M

$43.9K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$89.1K

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 38th District

Prior result

R+25.5

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Wesley Hunt.

Fundraising

24.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.