Jon Bonck · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Bonck is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Bonck at 95.1¢ against McDonough's 5.3¢, up 3.9¢ since August 3. Bonck leads 24.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Bonck · Republican contract

95.1¢

▲ 3.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Jon Bonck by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 97.1¢ · low 91.2¢Oct 12

Jon BonckRepublican

95.1¢

Melissa McDonoughDemocratic

5.3¢

7,604 traded · 4,232 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Bonck v McDonough

Metric by metric

Bonck

McDonough

95.1¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

5.3¢

$1.64M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$66.9K

$89.1K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$43.9K

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 38th District

Prior result

R+25.5

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Wesley Hunt.

Fundraising

24.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.