Elections Intelligence

Bert Mizusawa

VAU.S. Senate S architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe D Long shot
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What the Signal reads

Safe D

Mizusawa is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Mizusawa at 2.8¢ against Warner's 97.5¢, down 1.7¢ since July 31. The polling average has Warner ahead by 17.5 points, and Warner leads 47.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Mizusawa · Republican contract
2.8¢
▼ 1.7¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Bert Mizusawa by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 5¢ · low 1.8¢Oct 12
Bert MizusawaRepublican
2.8¢
Mark R. WarnerDemocratic · incumbent
97.5¢

32,291 traded · 14,476 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Mizusawa v Warner

Metric by metric
Mizusawa
Warner
2.8¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
97.5¢
$376.2K
RaisedFEC, through July 15
$17.89M
$53.0K
Cash on handFEC, through July 15
$16.11M
32.8%
Latest pollPublic Sentiment Inst., D-leaning firm · Jun 16
50.3%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Senatorsince 2009

The 2026 race

Virginia U.S. Senate
Latest poll
D+17.5

Public Sentiment Inst., D-leaning firm, June 16.

Prior result
D+12.1

2020 general election, won by Mark R. Warner.

Fundraising
47.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.