Mark R. Warner · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Warner is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Warner at 97.5¢ against Mizusawa's 2.8¢, up 2¢ since July 31. The polling average has Warner ahead by 17.5 points, and Warner leads 47.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Warner · Democratic contract

97.5¢

▲ 2.0¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Mark R. Warner by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 99¢ · low 95.5¢Oct 12

Mark R. WarnerDemocratic · incumbent

97.5¢

Bert MizusawaRepublican

2.8¢

32,291 traded · 14,476 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Warner v Mizusawa

Metric by metric

Warner

Mizusawa

97.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

2.8¢

$17.89M

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$376.2K

$16.11M

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$53.0K

50.3%

Latest pollPublic Sentiment Inst., D-leaning firm · Jun 16

32.8%

U.S. Senatorsince 2009

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Virginia U.S. Senate

Latest poll

D+17.5

Public Sentiment Inst., D-leaning firm, June 16.

Prior result

D+12.1

2020 general election, won by Mark R. Warner.

Fundraising

47.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.