Jeff Merkley
ORWhat the Signal reads
Safe D
Merkley is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Merkley at 98¢ against Smith's 2.3¢, up 0.4¢ since July 31. Merkley leads 37.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Merkley · Democratic contract
98.0¢
▲ 0.4¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jeff Merkley by name.
12,295 traded · 8,397 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Merkley v Smith
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Oregon U.S. SenatePrior result
D+17.6
2020 general election, won by Jeff Merkley.
Fundraising
37.6 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.