Kevin Hern · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Hern is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Hern at 96.9¢ against Thomas's 3.6¢, down 0.1¢ since July 31. The polling average has Hern ahead by 24 points, and Hern leads 174.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Hern · Republican contract

96.9¢

▼ 0.1¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Kevin Hern by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 99.3¢ · low 95.1¢Oct 12

Kevin HernRepublican

96.9¢

N'Kiyla ThomasDemocratic

3.6¢

43,494 traded · 29,713 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Hern v Thomas

Metric by metric

Hern

Thomas

96.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.6¢

$9.95M

RaisedFEC, through June 30 and August 5

$57.2K

$2.49M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30 and August 5

$456

49%

Latest pollCole Hargrave · Aug 6

25%

U.S. Representativesince 2018

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Oklahoma U.S. Senate

Latest poll

R+24

Cole Hargrave, August 6.

Prior result

R+30.2

2020 general election, won by Jim Inhofe.

Fundraising

174.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through August 5.