N'Kiyla Thomas · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Thomas is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Thomas at 3.6¢ against Hern's 96.9¢, down 0.5¢ since July 31. The polling average has Hern ahead by 24 points, and Hern leads 174.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Thomas · Democratic contract

3.6¢

▼ 0.5¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on N'Kiyla Thomas by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 5.9¢ · low 1.8¢Oct 12

N'Kiyla ThomasDemocratic

3.6¢

Kevin HernRepublican

96.9¢

43,494 traded · 29,713 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Thomas v Hern

Metric by metric

Thomas

Hern

3.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.9¢

$57.2K

RaisedFEC, through June 30 and August 5

$9.95M

$456

Cash on handFEC, through June 30 and August 5

$2.49M

25%

Latest pollCole Hargrave · Aug 6

49%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2018

The 2026 race

Oklahoma U.S. Senate

Latest poll

R+24

Cole Hargrave, August 6.

Prior result

R+30.2

2020 general election, won by Jim Inhofe.

Fundraising

174.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through August 5.