Doug Basler · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Basler is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Basler at 3.4¢ against Smith's 98.8¢, up 1.4¢ since August 3. Smith leads 153.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Basler · Republican contract

3.4¢

▲ 1.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Doug Basler by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 6.5¢ · low 2¢Oct 12

Doug BaslerRepublican

3.4¢

Adam SmithDemocratic · incumbent

98.8¢

14,426 traded · 4,496 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Basler v Smith

Metric by metric

Basler

Smith

3.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.8¢

$12.2K

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$1.88M

$5.0K

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$869.5K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 1997

The 2026 race

Washington 9th District

Prior result

65.4 to 32.4

Smith won 65.4% to 32.4% over another Democrat (2024).

Fundraising

153.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.