Adam Smith · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Smith is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Smith at 98.8¢ against Basler's 3.4¢, up 10.8¢ since August 3. Smith leads 153.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Smith · Democratic contract

98.8¢

▲ 10.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Adam Smith by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99¢ · low 88¢Oct 12

Adam SmithDemocratic · incumbent

98.8¢

Doug BaslerRepublican

3.4¢

14,426 traded · 4,496 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Smith v Basler

Metric by metric

Smith

Basler

98.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.4¢

$1.88M

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$12.2K

$869.5K

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$5.0K

U.S. Representativesince 1997

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Washington 9th District

Prior result

65.4 to 32.4

Smith won 65.4% to 32.4% over another Democrat (2024).

Fundraising

153.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.