Elections Intelligence

Gerald Malloy

VT-ALU.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe D Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Malloy is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Malloy at 3.4¢ against Balint's 99.4¢, up 0.2¢ since August 3. The polling average has Balint ahead by 26.5 points, and Balint leads 16.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Malloy · Republican contract
3.4¢
▲ 0.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Gerald Malloy by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 4.7¢ · low 2¢Oct 12
Gerald MalloyRepublican
3.4¢
Becca BalintDemocratic · incumbent
99.4¢

6,601 traded · 6,074 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Malloy v Balint

Metric by metric
Malloy
Balint
3.4¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
99.4¢
$58.3K
RaisedFEC, through July 22
$956.3K
$19.7K
Cash on handFEC, through July 22
$626.3K
30%
Latest pollBraun Research · Sep 21
47%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Vermont At-Large District
Polling average
D+26.5

Average of 2 pollsters, September 21.

Prior result
D+32.5

2024 general election, won by Becca Balint.

Fundraising
16.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.