Lauren Peña · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Peña is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Peña at 1.9¢ against Casar's 99.6¢, down 1¢ since August 3. Casar leads 9.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Peña · Republican contract

1.9¢

▼ 1.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Lauren Peña by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 7.7¢ · low 1.9¢Oct 12

Lauren PeñaRepublican

1.9¢

Greg CasarDemocratic

99.6¢

2,313 traded · 640 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Peña v Casar

Metric by metric

Peña

Casar

1.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

99.6¢

$117.9K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.17M

$770

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$597.0K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Texas 37th District

Prior result

D+50.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Lloyd Doggett.

Fundraising

9.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.