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Greg Casar

U.S. House H architectural icon OfficeHouse Democratic Strong favorite
CHALLENGER ON THE 2026 BALLOT SAFE D KALSHI · 98.6¢ · CHECKED 1:29 AM ET
WHAT THE SIGNAL READS ON CASAR
THE SEAT THEY ARE IN

Safe D

Greg Casar is a sitting U.S. Representative for Texas's 35th district, running in Texas's 37th district, a seat the band rates Safe D. Texas's 35th, which they hold, was redrawn 44.1 points toward the Republicans; the market prices their contract at 98.6¢ against Peña's 2.6¢, up 1.6¢ across 25 observation days; and they have raised 9.9 dollars for every one of Peña's.

MARKET · PARTY WINNER Kalshi ↗
Greg Casar · Democratic · KXHOUSERACE-TX37-26-D

98.6¢

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Greg Casar by name.

▲ 1.6¢

since Aug 3

2026-08-0325 observation days · high 98.6¢ · low 97.0¢2026-09-21
Greg Casar Democratic · incumbent
98.6¢

Settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

Lauren Peña Republican
2.6¢

Settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

DEPTH ON THIS BOOK 1,903 traded · 503 open

Sides may not sum to 100. Prices are the yes ask. checked 1:29 AM ET

CASAR AGAINST PEÑA · METRIC BY METRIC
Casar
Peña
MARKETchecked 1:29 AM ET

98.6¢

2.6¢

RAISED THIS CYCLEFederal Election Commission, through June 30, 2026

$1.17M

9.9:1 against Lauren Peña

$118K

WHAT THEY HOLD NOW

U.S. Representative

Texas's 35th district · since 2025 · a different seat from the one they are running in

Holds no office

Challenger

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWN D+33.6 → R+10.5

The governor signed HB 4 on 29 August 2025, composing the districts for the election of members of the United States House of Representatives from Texas as Plan C2333, effective 5 September 2025; the United States Supreme Court stayed the injunction against the plan on 4 December 2025.

The record this is read from ↗

THE 2026 RACE · TEXAS 37TH DISTRICT
LATEST POLLNot yet collectedno qualifying public poll retrieved for this race
PRIOR MARGIND+50.642024 general election · this seat's last result, verified against official results
STANDING · THIS SEAT
9.9:1fundraising ratio v Peña · FEC period 06-30
FUNDRAISING
$1.17Mraised
$597.0Kcash on hand
through June 30, 2026 · checked Aug 31
· Peña: $117.9K / $770 CoH
COMPARE V PEÑA ⇄