Roger Williams

TX-25

INCUMBENT Likely R to Safe R Strong favorite

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Williams is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Williams at 97.5¢ against Sims's 4.3¢, up 5.1¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Williams · Republican contract

97.5¢

▲ 5.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Roger Williams by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 97.9¢ · low 89¢Oct 12

Roger WilliamsRepublican · incumbent

97.5¢

Dione SimsDemocratic

4.3¢

4,049 traded · 2,787 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Williams v Sims

Metric by metric

Williams

Sims

97.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.3¢

$1.42M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

No total for Dione Sims: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.

$1.08M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

—

U.S. Representativesince 2013

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 25th District

Prior result

Williams +98.8

Williams won 99.4% to 0.6% over Chad Hagg (write-in) (2024).

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+36.3 → R+24.1

Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +36.3 to Trump +24.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗