Joaquin Castro
TX-20What the Signal reads
Castro is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Castro at 96.1¢ against Baez's 5¢, up 0.1¢ since August 3. Castro leads 10.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Joaquin Castro by name.
1,161 traded · 798 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Castro v Baez
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 20th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Joaquin Castro.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+21.3 → D+28.5
Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It becomes somewhat more Democratic, going from Harris +21.3 to Harris +28.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.