Edgardo Baez · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Baez is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Baez at 5¢ against Castro's 96.1¢, up 0.9¢ since August 3. Castro leads 10.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Baez · Republican contract

5.0¢

▲ 0.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Edgardo Baez by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 7¢ · low 2¢Oct 12

Edgardo BaezRepublican

5.0¢

Joaquin CastroDemocratic · incumbent

96.1¢

1,161 traded · 798 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Baez v Castro

Metric by metric

Baez

Castro

5.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.1¢

$48.5K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$514.8K

$21.5K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$154.4K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2013

The 2026 race

Texas 20th District

Prior result

D+100.0

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Joaquin Castro.

Fundraising

10.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.