Veronica Escobar

TX-16

INCUMBENT Safe D Strong favorite

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Escobar is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Escobar at 98.3¢ against Bauman's 3.7¢, up 0.7¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Escobar · Democratic contract

98.3¢

▲ 0.7¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Veronica Escobar by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.8¢ · low 97.6¢Oct 12

Veronica EscobarDemocratic · incumbent

98.3¢

Adam BaumanRepublican

3.7¢

646 traded · 524 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Escobar v Bauman

Metric by metric

Escobar

Bauman

98.3¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.7¢

$858.8K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

No total for Adam Bauman: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.

$270.5K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

—

U.S. Representativesince 2019

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 16th District

Prior result

D+19.1

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Veronica Escobar.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+16.0 → D+16.4

Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +16 to Harris +16.4 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗