Elections Intelligence

Randy K. Weber, Sr.

TX-14U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe R Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Weber is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Weber at 98¢ against Bartie's 4.1¢, up 4¢ since August 3. Weber leads 36.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Weber · Republican contract
98.0¢
▲ 4.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Randy K. Weber, Sr. by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 94¢Oct 12
Randy K. Weber, Sr.Republican · incumbent
98.0¢
Thurman BartieDemocratic
4.1¢

4,676 traded · 1,715 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Weber v Bartie

Metric by metric
Weber
Bartie
98.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
4.1¢
$972.6K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$26.8K
$921.9K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$-1092
U.S. Representativesince 2013
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 14th District
Prior result
R+37.4

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Randy K. Weber, Sr..

Fundraising
36.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+34.1 → R+24.3

Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +34.1 to Trump +24.3 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.