Jason Pearce · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Pearce is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Pearce at 5.9¢ against Fallon's 97.3¢, down 3.5¢ since August 3. Fallon leads 48.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Pearce · Democratic contract

5.9¢

▼ 3.5¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jason Pearce by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 5.9¢Oct 12

Jason PearceDemocratic

5.9¢

Pat FallonRepublican · incumbent

97.3¢

4,264 traded · 2,040 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Pearce v Fallon

Metric by metric

Pearce

Fallon

5.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.3¢

$16.3K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$790.5K

$2.1K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.10M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

Texas 4th District

Prior result

R+36.8

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Pat Fallon.

Fundraising

48.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.