Pat Fallon
TX-4What the Signal reads
Fallon is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Fallon at 97.3¢ against Pearce's 5.9¢, up 3.3¢ since August 3. Fallon leads 48.5 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Pat Fallon by name.
4,264 traded · 2,040 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Fallon v Pearce
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 4th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Pat Fallon.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+32.6 → R+24.7
Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +32.6 to Trump +24.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.