Marty J. Jackley · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Jackley is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Jackley at 96.8¢ against Gronli's 4.9¢, up 1.8¢ since August 3. Jackley leads 5.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Jackley · Republican contract

96.8¢

▲ 1.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Marty J. Jackley by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 97.6¢ · low 95¢Oct 12

Marty J. JackleyRepublican

96.8¢

Nicole GronliDemocratic

4.9¢

5,606 traded · 3,583 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Jackley v Gronli

Metric by metric

Jackley

Gronli

96.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.9¢

$1.44M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$261.8K

$1.06M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$111.0K

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

South Dakota At-Large District

Prior result

R+44.1

2024 general election, won by Dusty Johnson.

Fundraising

5.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.