Nicole Gronli · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Gronli is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Gronli at 4.9¢ against Jackley's 96.8¢, unchanged since August 3. Jackley leads 5.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Gronli · Democratic contract

4.9¢

Unchangedsince August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Nicole Gronli by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 9.8¢ · low 4.3¢Oct 12

Nicole GronliDemocratic

4.9¢

Marty J. JackleyRepublican

96.8¢

5,606 traded · 3,583 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Gronli v Jackley

Metric by metric

Gronli

Jackley

4.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.8¢

$261.8K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.44M

$111.0K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.06M

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

South Dakota At-Large District

Prior result

R+44.1

2024 general election, won by Dusty Johnson.

Fundraising

5.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.