Mitchell Jacob · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Jacob is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Jacob at 5.1¢ against Cole's 97.3¢, up 1.2¢ since August 3. Cole leads 58.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Jacob · Democratic contract

5.1¢

▲ 1.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Mitchell Jacob by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 12¢ · low 2.7¢Oct 12

Mitchell JacobDemocratic

5.1¢

Tom ColeRepublican · incumbent

97.3¢

3,922 traded · 2,878 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Jacob v Cole

Metric by metric

Jacob

Cole

5.1¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.3¢

$65.3K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$3.83M

$4.2K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$2.60M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2003

The 2026 race

Oklahoma 4th District

Prior result

R+37.0

2024 general election, won by Tom Cole.

Fundraising

58.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.