Troy Balderson
OH-12What the Signal reads
Balderson is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Balderson at 96.8¢ against Christian's 4.9¢, up 5.3¢ since August 3. Balderson leads 20.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Troy Balderson by name.
9,051 traded · 2,465 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Balderson v Christian
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Ohio 12th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Troy Balderson.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+32.7 → R+30.1
Ohio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +32.7 to Trump +30.1 in the 2024 presidential vote).