John W. Mannion · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Mannion is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Mannion at 95.8¢ against Buller's 3.9¢, up 1.6¢ since August 3. Mannion leads 10 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Mannion · Democratic contract

95.8¢

▲ 1.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on John W. Mannion by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 96.2¢ · low 93.8¢Oct 12

John W. MannionDemocratic · incumbent

95.8¢

Kailee Marie BullerRepublican

3.9¢

14,733 traded · 12,077 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Mannion v Buller

Metric by metric

Mannion

Buller

95.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.9¢

$2.69M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$267.3K

$1.84M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$186.6K

U.S. Representativesince 2025

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

New York 22nd District

Prior result

D+9.1

2024 general election, won by John W. Mannion.

Fundraising

10 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.