Herbert C. Conaway, Jr. · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Conaway is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Conaway at 98¢ against McGuire's 2.8¢, up 5.2¢ since August 3. Conaway leads 11.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Conaway · Democratic contract

98.0¢

▲ 5.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Herbert C. Conaway, Jr. by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 92.8¢Oct 12

Herbert C. Conaway, Jr.Democratic · incumbent

98.0¢

Michael P. McGuireRepublican

2.8¢

5,689 traded · 3,451 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Conaway v McGuire

Metric by metric

Conaway

McGuire

98.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

2.8¢

$934.7K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$79.2K

$439.3K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$807

U.S. Representativesince 2025

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

New Jersey 3rd District

Prior result

D+8.6

2024 general election, won by Herbert C. Conaway, Jr..

Fundraising

11.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.