Michael P. McGuire · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

McGuire is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has McGuire at 2.8¢ against Conaway's 98¢, down 7.2¢ since August 3. Conaway leads 11.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

McGuire · Republican contract

2.8¢

▼ 7.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Michael P. McGuire by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 36¢ · low 2.8¢Oct 12

Michael P. McGuireRepublican

2.8¢

Herbert C. Conaway, Jr.Democratic · incumbent

98.0¢

5,689 traded · 3,451 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

McGuire v Conaway

Metric by metric

McGuire

Conaway

2.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.0¢

$79.2K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$934.7K

$807

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$439.3K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

New Jersey 3rd District

Prior result

D+8.6

2024 general election, won by Herbert C. Conaway, Jr..

Fundraising

11.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.