Adrian Smith · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Smith is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Smith at 99.3¢ against Stille's 2¢, up 0.4¢ since August 3. Smith leads 32.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Smith · Republican contract

99.3¢

▲ 0.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Adrian Smith by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.8¢ · low 97.8¢Oct 12

Adrian SmithRepublican · incumbent

99.3¢

Becky StilleDemocratic

2.0¢

3,055 traded · 2,343 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Smith v Stille

Metric by metric

Smith

Stille

99.3¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

2.0¢

$1.78M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$55.1K

$1.02M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$14.8K

U.S. Representativesince 2007

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Nebraska 3rd District

Prior result

R+60.8

2024 general election, won by Adrian Smith.

Fundraising

32.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.