Troy Downing
MT-2What the Signal reads
Safe R
Downing is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Downing at 98¢ against Miller's 2.6¢, up 3.6¢ since August 3. The polling average has Downing ahead by 22 points, and Downing leads 110.9 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Downing · Republican contract
98.0¢
▲ 3.6¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Troy Downing by name.
6,654 traded · 4,167 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Downing v Miller
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Montana 2nd DistrictLatest poll
R+22
Rutgers University, September 7.
Prior result
R+32.0
2024 general election, won by Troy Downing.
Fundraising
110.9 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.