Brian J. Miller · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Miller is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Miller at 2.6¢ against Downing's 98¢, down 3.1¢ since August 3. The polling average has Downing ahead by 22 points, and Downing leads 110.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Miller · Democratic contract

2.6¢

▼ 3.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Brian J. Miller by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 2.6¢Oct 12

Brian J. MillerDemocratic

2.6¢

Troy DowningRepublican · incumbent

98.0¢

6,654 traded · 4,167 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Miller v Downing

Metric by metric

Miller

Downing

2.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.0¢

$19.2K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$2.13M

$3.2K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$650.5K

26%

Latest pollRutgers University · Sep 7

48%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

Montana 2nd District

Latest poll

R+22

Rutgers University, September 7.

Prior result

R+32.0

2024 general election, won by Troy Downing.

Fundraising

110.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.