Michael Guest · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Guest is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Guest at 98.4¢ against Chiaradio's 1.7¢, up 2.9¢ since August 3. Guest leads 5.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Guest · Republican contract

98.4¢

▲ 2.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Michael Guest by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98.4¢ · low 95.5¢Oct 12

Michael GuestRepublican · incumbent

98.4¢

Michael A. ChiaradioDemocratic

1.7¢

3,965 traded · 1,923 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Guest v Chiaradio

Metric by metric

Guest

Chiaradio

98.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

1.7¢

$822.8K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$155.4K

$962.5K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$23.2K

U.S. Representativesince 2019

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Mississippi 3rd District

Prior result

R+100.0

2024 general election, won by Michael Guest.

Fundraising

5.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.