Michael A. Chiaradio · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Chiaradio is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Chiaradio at 1.7¢ against Guest's 98.4¢, up 0.2¢ since August 3. Guest leads 5.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Chiaradio · Democratic contract

1.7¢

▲ 0.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Michael A. Chiaradio by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 6¢ · low 1.5¢Oct 12

Michael A. ChiaradioDemocratic

1.7¢

Michael GuestRepublican · incumbent

98.4¢

3,965 traded · 1,923 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Chiaradio v Guest

Metric by metric

Chiaradio

Guest

1.7¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.4¢

$155.4K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$822.8K

$23.2K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$962.5K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2019

The 2026 race

Mississippi 3rd District

Prior result

R+100.0

2024 general election, won by Michael Guest.

Fundraising

5.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.