Thomas Stalcup · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Stalcup is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Stalcup at 2.7¢ against Auchincloss's 98.5¢, down 1.3¢ since August 3. Auchincloss leads 138.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Stalcup · Republican contract

2.7¢

▼ 1.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Thomas Stalcup by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 5.1¢ · low 2.1¢Oct 12

Thomas StalcupRepublican

2.7¢

Jake AuchinclossDemocratic · incumbent

98.5¢

2,619 traded · 1,974 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Stalcup v Auchincloss

Metric by metric

Stalcup

Auchincloss

2.7¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.5¢

$26.2K

RaisedFEC, through August 12

$3.63M

$1.3K

Cash on handFEC, through August 12

$7.34M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

Massachusetts 4th District

Prior result

D+97.2

2024 general election, won by Jake Auchincloss.

Fundraising

138.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through August 12.