Jake Auchincloss · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Auchincloss is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Auchincloss at 98.5¢ against Stalcup's 2.7¢, up 1¢ since August 3. Auchincloss leads 138.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Auchincloss · Democratic contract

98.5¢

▲ 1.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jake Auchincloss by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 97.5¢Oct 12

Jake AuchinclossDemocratic · incumbent

98.5¢

Thomas StalcupRepublican

2.7¢

2,619 traded · 1,974 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Auchincloss v Stalcup

Metric by metric

Auchincloss

Stalcup

98.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

2.7¢

$3.63M

RaisedFEC, through August 12

$26.2K

$7.34M

Cash on handFEC, through August 12

$1.3K

U.S. Representativesince 2021

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Massachusetts 4th District

Prior result

D+97.2

2024 general election, won by Jake Auchincloss.

Fundraising

138.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through August 12.