Elections Intelligence

Clay Higgins

LA-3U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe R Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Higgins is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market prices a Republican hold of the seat at 98¢, a price on the party and not on Higgins.

The market

Kalshi ↗

No price is quoted on this candidate: no contract on this candidate in the market.

Democratic lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
2.6¢
Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
98.0¢
John DayDemocratic
no contract on this candidate in the market
Priscilla GonzalezDemocratic
no contract on this candidate in the market
Caleb WalkerDemocratic
no contract on this candidate in the market
Tia LeBrunNP
no contract on this candidate in the market
Kate CottenRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market
Clay HigginsRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market

4,258 traded · 3,111 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Higgins v Cotten

Metric by metric
Higgins
Cotten
$822.8K
RaisedFEC, through July 18
No filing on file for Kate Cotten with the Federal Election Commission.
$595.4K
Cash on handFEC, through July 18
—
U.S. Representativesince 2017
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Louisiana 3rd District
Prior result
R+51.9

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Clay Higgins.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+44.8 → R+36.0

Louisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +44.8 to Trump +36 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗

The open primary is on November 3, which is 22 days away. If no one tops 50%, the top two meet on December 12.