Morgan McGarvey · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

McGarvey is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has McGarvey at 98.6¢ against Rodriguez's 4.5¢, up 4.3¢ since August 3. McGarvey leads 42.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

McGarvey · Democratic contract

98.6¢

▲ 4.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Morgan McGarvey by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.8¢ · low 94.3¢Oct 12

Morgan McGarveyDemocratic · incumbent

98.6¢

Maria Teresa RodriguezRepublican

4.5¢

3,948 traded · 2,664 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

McGarvey v Rodriguez

Metric by metric

McGarvey

Rodriguez

98.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.5¢

$1.63M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$38.1K

$1.81M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$15.7K

U.S. Representativesince 2023

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Kentucky 3rd District

Prior result

D+23.9

2024 general election, won by Morgan McGarvey.

Fundraising

42.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.