Maria Teresa Rodriguez · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Rodriguez is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Rodriguez at 4.5¢ against McGarvey's 98.6¢, down 1.1¢ since August 3. McGarvey leads 42.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Rodriguez · Republican contract

4.5¢

▼ 1.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Maria Teresa Rodriguez by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 6.9¢ · low 2.6¢Oct 12

Maria Teresa RodriguezRepublican

4.5¢

Morgan McGarveyDemocratic · incumbent

98.6¢

3,948 traded · 2,664 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Rodriguez v McGarvey

Metric by metric

Rodriguez

McGarvey

4.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.6¢

$38.1K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.63M

$15.7K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.81M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Kentucky 3rd District

Prior result

D+23.9

2024 general election, won by Morgan McGarvey.

Fundraising

42.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.