Mary Allen · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Allen is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Allen at 7.9¢ against Messmer's 96.4¢, up 3.3¢ since August 3. Messmer leads 3.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Allen · Democratic contract

7.9¢

▲ 3.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Mary Allen by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 7.9¢ · low 4.6¢Oct 12

Mary AllenDemocratic

7.9¢

Mark B. MessmerRepublican · incumbent

96.4¢

6,694 traded · 2,553 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Allen v Messmer

Metric by metric

Allen

Messmer

7.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.4¢

$294.5K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.17M

$179.3K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$713.5K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

Indiana 8th District

Prior result

R+38.5

2024 general election, won by Mark B. Messmer.

Fundraising

3.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.